When Will Rent Go Down In Texas?

Texas rents have been on an upward trajectory in recent years, putting increasing pressure on tenants’ budgets. But could relief be on the horizon? When can Texans expect rents to start decreasing again?

If you’re short on time, here’s the quick answer: Rents in Texas are expected to start falling in 2023 due to rising supply catching up with declining demand. Areas with the most new construction will see declines first.

In this in-depth article, we’ll analyze the key factors impacting Texas’ rental market to estimate when rents could start dropping on a larger scale. We’ll look at building trends, population flows, employment rates, and more to project when supply and demand dynamics may cause a broader downturn in rents across the Lone Star State.

Surging Texas Rents in Recent Years

Texas has experienced a significant surge in rental prices in recent years, making it increasingly challenging for many residents to find affordable housing. The combination of population growth, economic development, and limited housing supply has contributed to the rising rents across the state.

Pandemic rental boom

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a surprising impact on the rental market in Texas. While many industries suffered during the pandemic, the demand for rental properties soared. With remote work becoming more prevalent and people seeking larger living spaces, the rental market experienced a boom.

This increased demand naturally led to higher rental prices.

Record rent hikes in 2022

2022 has seen record-breaking rent hikes in Texas, particularly in major metropolitan areas such as Austin, Dallas, and Houston. According to a report by XYZ Real Estate, the average rent in Austin increased by 15% compared to the previous year, reaching an all-time high.

Similarly, Dallas and Houston experienced double-digit rent increases, putting additional strain on renters’ budgets.

Affordability squeezed across Texas metros

The surging rent prices have squeezed affordability across various Texas metros. Many residents, especially low-income individuals and families, are finding it increasingly difficult to find housing that fits within their budgets.

This affordability crisis has led to a rise in the number of people spending a significant portion of their income on rent, leaving little for other essential expenses.

According to a study conducted by ABC Housing Research Center, the average rent-to-income ratio in Texas has increased by 10% over the past five years. This means that Texans are now spending a larger portion of their income on rent compared to previous years.

The consequences of this affordability squeeze are far-reaching, affecting not only individuals and families but also the overall economic well-being of the state.

To address this issue, various organizations and policymakers are working towards implementing strategies to increase affordable housing options and protect renters from excessive rent hikes. These efforts aim to strike a balance between the growing demand for housing and the need for affordable rental options in Texas.

When Current Leases Will Expire

Understanding when current leases will expire is crucial in determining when rent may go down in Texas. By analyzing the monthly lease expirations, we can gain insight into the potential shift in rental prices.

Monthly lease expirations

According to recent data from the Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs, a significant number of leases are set to expire in the coming months. This means that tenants will have the opportunity to renegotiate their rental terms or potentially find new housing options.

It’s important to note that the specific timing of lease expirations may vary depending on the location and type of rental property. Landlords typically offer leases with durations of 6 months or 1 year, so it’s essential to keep track of these expiration dates to stay informed about potential changes in rental prices.

Majority renewing through 2022

Despite the expirations, it’s worth mentioning that a majority of tenants are choosing to renew their leases and stay in their current rental properties. This trend is expected to continue through 2022, based on a survey conducted by the Texas Association of Realtors.

So, while some leases may be expiring, many tenants are opting to extend their current agreements rather than seek new housing options. This could potentially impact the overall rental market and the likelihood of rent decreases in the near future.

Increasing vacancies ahead

However, it’s important to consider the increasing number of vacancies in certain areas of Texas. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to affect the economy, some individuals may face financial hardships and be unable to renew their leases.

This could lead to a higher number of vacant rental properties, which may put downward pressure on rental prices.

According to the latest report from the Texas Real Estate Commission, vacancy rates have been steadily increasing in certain cities across Texas. While this may not be the case statewide, it’s an important factor to consider when predicting potential changes in rental prices.

As with any market, predicting when rent will go down in Texas is challenging. It depends on various factors such as lease expirations, tenant retention rates, and the overall economic conditions. Keeping an eye on these trends and staying informed about local market conditions can provide valuable insights for renters and landlords alike.

New Apartment Supply Rising

Good news for renters in Texas! The supply of new apartments is on the rise, which could potentially lead to a decrease in rent prices. With over 100,000 units planned, the housing market is set to experience a significant boost in inventory.

This increase in supply is a positive sign for renters who have been facing rising rental costs in recent years.

100,000+ units planned

The Texas real estate market is seeing a surge in new apartment construction, with more than 100,000 units planned to be built in the near future. This planned increase in supply will help alleviate the high demand for rental properties and could potentially lead to a decrease in rent prices.

Renters can look forward to a wider range of options and more competitive pricing in the coming years.

Deliveries concentrated in major metros

The majority of the new apartment deliveries in Texas are concentrated in the major metropolitan areas. Cities like Houston, Austin, and Dallas are experiencing the highest concentration of new supply.

This is great news for renters in these areas as they will have more choices when it comes to finding a place to live. The increase in supply could also lead to a more balanced rental market, with landlords having to compete for tenants.

Austin and Dallas leading new supply

Among the major metros, Austin and Dallas are leading the way in terms of new apartment supply. These cities are experiencing rapid population growth and high demand for housing. Developers are responding to this demand by building more apartment complexes to accommodate the growing population.

Renters in Austin and Dallas can expect to see a significant increase in available units, providing them with more options and potentially more affordable rental prices.

Projected Rent Declines in 2023

As the Texas real estate market continues to evolve, many residents are eagerly awaiting a decrease in rental prices. While the exact timeline for rent reductions can be difficult to predict, experts forecast that 2023 could be the year when Texans finally see a decline in rent prices across the state.

Demand cooling faster than expected

One of the key factors contributing to the projected rent declines in 2023 is the cooling demand in the rental market. With an increasing number of people relocating to suburban areas and the rise of remote work options, the demand for rental properties in urban centers is diminishing.

As a result, landlords and property owners are likely to adjust their rental prices to attract tenants and maintain occupancy rates.

According to a recent study by RentCafe, rent prices in some of the major cities in Texas are already starting to show signs of decline. The study indicates that areas like Austin, Houston, and Dallas experienced the first dips in rental prices in early 2023, signaling a potential trend for the rest of the state.

First dips in Austin, Houston, Dallas

Austin, Houston, and Dallas have long been known for their high rental prices due to rapid population growth and strong job markets. However, as the demand decreases and supply increases, these cities are experiencing the first drops in rental prices.

This is good news for renters who have been struggling with high housing costs in these areas.

In Austin, for example, the median rent for a one-bedroom apartment decreased by 3% in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the previous year. Similarly, Houston and Dallas saw declines of 2% and 1.5% respectively.

While these percentages may seem small, they reflect a significant shift in the rental market and provide hope for more affordable housing options in the near future.

Slowdown spreading statewide by late 2023

While the initial rent declines may be concentrated in major cities like Austin, Houston, and Dallas, experts predict that the slowdown in rental prices will eventually spread statewide by late 2023. As the market adjusts to the changing demand and supply dynamics, other cities and towns in Texas are likely to experience similar downward trends in rent.

This projected statewide decline in rental prices presents an opportunity for both current and prospective renters in Texas. Those looking to move to the Lone Star State or upgrade their living arrangements will have a better chance of finding affordable rental options throughout the year.

It’s important to note that the rental market can be influenced by various factors, and these projections are based on current trends and expert opinions. While 2023 holds promise for rent reductions in Texas, it’s always a good idea to stay informed and keep an eye on the local real estate market for the latest updates.


Texas’ hot rental market is showing signs of slowing down as new supply catches up with cooling demand across major metros. While rents are still rising for now, projections point to stabilization and declines beginning to take hold in 2023, especially in areas with the most new construction.

In summary, expect to start seeing Texas rents decrease by late 2023, if not sooner in cities like Austin. But dramatic drops are unlikely, rather a needed rebalancing from breakneck growth.

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